People Don’t Think Donald Trump Will Become President Again

Eric Medlin
3 min readNov 8, 2023

Democrats need to remind them it is possible.

The first debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in 2020. Source: Axios

The American people are beginning to think about the 2024 presidential election. It is, admittedly, an early stage. Pollsters have just started to release regular battleground polls. Most states still have not set their primary ballots, meaning that new candidates could enter the race at any time. Large numbers of voters remain undecided and are continuing to give attention to third-party candidates they will likely never vote for.

But at this early point, the polls suggest that the American people clearly want Donald Trump to become president. Trump is leading in a number of general election and battleground state polls. His rise has forced Democrats to double down on their reelection efforts and start to address some of the issues and constituencies they had previously ignored. Trump’s success has also forced the party to change its economic message, since it appears that voters care much more about reducing inflation than high consumer spending or low unemployment.

The most amazing aspect of Trump’s support is that it is starting to come from sources that most people never dreamed that it could. Biden has lost substantial ground from African American men, after years of outright racist comments and policies that openly support wealthy white people. Trump has gained among women and Latinos despite accusations of sexual assault and dehumanizing rhetoric towards legal and illegal immigrants. Most notably, Trump has boosted his numbers among young voters even though many Democrats believed that the next generation was dead-set against him.

There is a possibility that this renewed support for Trump represents a genuine love for the 45th president. But it is more likely that many voters prefer Biden but want to voice their displeasure. These voters, many of whom still hate Trump and what his presidency would represent, may end up forcing a second Trump term regardless.

The situation in 2023 mirrors that of 2016. In that year, Democrats were running an unpopular candidate. Voters started gravitating to and supporting third-party candidates, boosted by help from Russian bots. Disaffected Democrats believed the true will of the voters was being silenced. This discontent was partially…



Eric Medlin

I’m a writer interested in the intersections of history, ideas, and politics. I publish every week.