The Perils of an Incumbent Primary
Fighting an incumbent is incredibly difficult, even in normal circumstances.
Ron DeSantis failed in his bid to succeed Donald Trump as the Republican Party’s next presidential nominee on Sunday. He announced that he was suspending his presidential bid amid a second-place showing in the Iowa caucuses and a likely drubbing in the New Hampshire primary.
Observers spent much of this week trying to figure out exactly where DeSantis went wrong. The vast majority cited his poor retail politics and generally abrasive manner. They noted how uncomfortable he seemed on stage and how poorly he communicated at events. Many also cited his attempts to run to the right of Trump and siphon votes from the Trump base, a group that has clearly not abandoned its champion.
But DeSantis and Trump’s current rival, Nikki Haley, both suffer from a severe flaw: the failure to differentiate from the incumbent. This flaw plagues every primary opponent of an incumbent and is the top hurdle that all of these challengers must face. Those that can still face uphill odds but at least have a chance of ending a reelection bid.
The incumbent is an incredibly powerful position in an American election. The American people are familiar with them and can see them doing the job of president, even if they do not always think the incumbent has done…